MU's Current Conditions: (at 19:01) Temp: 49 F | Dew Point: 28 | Wind: - calm mph
SPECIAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (Updated twice weekly, but more often when storms threaten.)

* “It's like déjà vu all over again.” *

Friday, 2015:
I'll summarize the weather pattern for the first half of November with the Yogi Berra quote: “It's like déjà vu all over again.”

The first half of November will bring a continuation—though less extreme version—of the mild, dry pattern of recent weeks. A temperature rollercoaster ride of sorts will develop as shallow shots of Canadian air bring a couple cool days followed by a few days of much warmer conditions as southwesterly flow develops. The opening days of November will exemplify this pattern as mild temperatures (low 70s) on November 2 – 3 give way to seasonably cool highs (~60°) on November 4 – 6.

The second week of November will bring more of the same, although temperatures will be a bit less variable with highs mainly in the 60s (normal is mid/upper 50s). With dry West and Northwest flow dominating the pattern through November 12th, I see almost little chance for significant rainfall before mid-month. Therefore, the first half of November will follow October’s lead with temperatures averaging 3 or 4 degrees above normal, while precipitation is below-average…or even nonexistent.

So when will the stubborn pattern of recent weeks give way to a colder, more disturbed configuration more typical of November? I do see some subtle signs in the hemispheric pattern that high-latitude ridging and retrogression of the mid-latitude longwave troughs might lead to notable changes during the final week or two of November. While I’ll stop short of forecasting a shift into an early-winter-like pattern, I do expect the final 10 – 14 days of November to bring a couple sharper blasts of Canadian air and likely some snow showers to the mountains of PA. If the mid-latitude pattern fails to retrograde, however, then fast jet stream flow off the Pacific will continue to push mild air masses from the Plains to the East coast. Thus, despite a couple late-month brushes of much colder air (and perhaps flurries) it may be December until we click into a wintry pattern that could bring the season’s first measurable snowfall.

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