FXUS61 KPHI 230750
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
345 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
BY 3:30 AM SOME ALTOCUMULUS HAD DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF MARYLAND,
DELAWARE, NEW JERSEY AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.  PERHAPS
WE'RE SEEING A SUBTLE RETURN (WARM ADVECTION) FLOW IN THE MID
LEVELS, ENOUGH TO CREATE THE PATCHES OF ALTOCUMULUS.  OUR THINKING
IS THAT THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST A BIT BEYOND DAYBREAK AND
THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE ONCE THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO MIX.

MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD EXPERIENCE A SUNNY PERIOD DURING
THE LATE MORNING.  HOWEVER, DURING THE AFTERNOON WE'LL LIKELY SEE
SOME CUMULUS DEVELOP (MAINLY NORTH) AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
RETURN FROM THE SOUTH.  AS A RESULT, WE'LL SIMPLY CALL IT PARTLY
CLOUDY EVERYWHERE FOR TODAY TO COVER THE EARLY MORNING CLOUDS AND
THE AFTERNOON CLOUDS.

BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A LITTLE
RAIN DOWN IN SUSSEX COUNTY, DELAWARE DURING THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.  AS A RESULT, WE'VE GONE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
OR TSTM THERE.  BOTH MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A WEAK WAVE ALONG THE
SURFACE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.  THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
PASS OFF CAPE HATTERAS THIS EVENING.

BEYOND THE TONIGHT PERIOD WE'VE MADE LITTLE CHANGE.  WE'VE ADJUSTED
SOME OF THE TEMPS UPWARD A NOTCH OR TWO BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THE DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY, BECOMING A BIT WARMER. HOWEVER,
THE EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY SHOULD NOT RETURN.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, A FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
AFFECT THE REGION.  THE FRONT LOOKS WEAK AND SHOULD ONLY ACT TO
RENEW THE DRY AIR ALREADY IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY OVER MOST OF
THE AREA WITH SOME LINGERING CIRRUS ACROSS THE SOUTH.  THE OVERALL
FORECAST RATIONALE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN THE LAST FEW DAYS.  VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WX
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC.  EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN SOME CU OR STCU
OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME CIRRUS INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVEWATCH DATA HAS BEEN IN BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS.
SEAS ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 2 AND 3 FEET THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH A FEW PEAKS TO 4 FEET.  OVERALL, A QUIET PATTERN WILL PERSIST
ON THE WATERS WITH WINDS AND SEAS FCST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...RNS/GIZOT
AVIATION/MARINE...NIERENBERG