The first half of the week was spectacular with lots of sunshine, mild temperatures, and low humidity. The tables are now turning, and I see a good likelihood of three rain events in the next week to ten days. The first is a low pressure system now approaching us from the TN Valley. A steady rain will develop tonight and last into Friday with an inch of rain likely. Add in a cool northeasterly wind and it will feel more like April than May. This system will exit Friday night, and Saturday should yield some improvement as a cool, dry northwest breeze develops. A trailing mid-level disturbance may kick up a few isolated showers Saturday, but most of the day should be rainfree.

The Sunday to Tuesday timeframe looks to bring a major jet stream amplification into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. This looks like a major spring storm with potential for heavy rain and sustained easterly winds, from the mountains to the coast plain. The best chance for steady rain looks to be Sunday night into Monday, although showers may linger into Tuesday. Temperatures through this period will average at least 10 degrees below normal.

A brief break in the storminess may occur on Wednesday, before another strong jet stream disturbance digs into the East next Thursday or Friday. While the strength and timing of this system are uncertain, there does seem to be another chance for showers (or a soaking rain) toward the end of the week.

NOTE: I'll be on vacation the week of May 12th.