10:30am Monday, May 14:
While temperatures reached 81 degrees on Sunday and might again rise
to near 80 degrees on Wednesday, I see no sign of a pattern that will
bring sustained warmth anytime soon. An active jet stream pattern,
along with lingering blocking in the high latitudes, will bring a few
more troughs through the northeast over the next couple of weeks. One
of these slow-moving troughs will bring periods of rain this afternoon
into Tuesday--one to two inches of beneficial rains will likely fall
from this event. Mild air behind this system will make Wednesday the
warmest day of the week, before a cold front moves through Wednesday
night. Canadian high pressure will arrive for the period Thursday
through Saturday. Thursday and Friday will average a couple degrees
below normal, however a moderating trend will lift temps back into the
upper 70s for the weekend...and perhaps reach the low 80s by next
Sunday or Monday. A possible spoiler for one day next weekend
(possibly Saturday?) is easterly flow off the Atlantic, which could
make for a cloudy, cool day despite high pressure being in control.
As you might expect, another jet stream trough will then arrive
with a chance of showers next Tuesday. Northwesterly flow behind this
system will bring a shot of cooler, drier air for the middle of next
week. So while there will be a couple warm days (with highs in the low
80s) every now and then, the current progressive jet stream pattern
will prevent sustained warmth from setting up. Still, temperatures for
the period may average out a couple degrees above normal as frequent
nighttime cloudiness causes daily low temps to run a bit above average
most nights.
1:00pm Thursday, May 10:
It's been a damp start to May with measurable precipitation falling on
7 of the 9 days. While we still carry a rainfall deficit (5.9"
year-to-date), the pattern has completely changed from that which
produced several months of consistently mild, dry conditions. The new
regimen favors more frequent showers, shots of cool air, and just
enough warm days to make for near-average conditions in the mean. It
looks like we'll remain is this same kind of pattern deep into May,
and perhaps even into part of June.
Short-term, we have deep northwesterly flow ushering in another
shot of Canadian air. Temperatures today and Friday will average
several degrees below normal, before returning to seasonal levels for
the weekend. Outside of an isolated shower today (with the upper-level
system), high pressure will dominate into the first half of the
weekend. Friday and Saturday will be gorgeous with abundant sunshine,
cool mornings, and mild afternoons. It really does get much better
than this for MU's commencement ceremonies on Saturday!
A return of milder air will trigger the development of some clouds
Saturday night into Sunday, and perhaps a stray shower to end the
weekend. There's a better chance of showers, or even a period of
steadier rain, Monday into Tuesday as a southern system may feed
moisture up along a slow-moving front. Yet another strong system may
pass through in northwesterly flow the middle of next week, thus
ushering in another cool, dry air mass for the second half of next week.
Check out the latest episode of MU Meteorology's Weather
Watch show!
