* Mild September on the Way? *

11:30am Thursday, August 28:
Wednesday produced the month's warmest temperature (89) and it was the month's only anomalously warm day at 3 degrees above average. Month-to-date, however, we're still well below normal with an average anomaly of about -2.6 degrees. And despite a warm end to the month (Sunday), I expect August will conclude around 2.3 degrees below normal...making it the coolest August in 20 years!

Will this trend continue into September? Well, the persistent coolness of 2014 might make you think so; however, I'm not so sure. For the first time this year I see a few signs that a ridge will try to develop and linger along the East coast (and western Atlantic) for at least the first week of September. Based on this, I expect the first week of September will average ABOVE normal...and perhaps turn into the warmest week of the summer with regard to normal (NOT the absolute warmest). And if this ridge can linger into mid-month--and I suspect it may--then September could become the first above normal temperature month of 2014. But I'm going to stop short of forecasting this for now...although I am committing to the forecast of a warm first week of September.

Short-term, another Canadian high pressure will dominate into Friday with temps running several degrees below normal. A warm front will slowly cross the Commonwealth (west to east) Saturday into Saturday night, so a good deal of clouds are likely as low-level southeasterly flow prevails here ahead of this front. By Sunday and Monday, however, the warm front will be through and conditions will turn much warmer and humid with highs in the mid to upper 80s. An isolated shower or t-storm is possible in the afternoons, but most of the weekend will be rain free. And as stated above, I do expect warm conditions to continue through most of next week...and just maybe temps will touch 90 degrees one more time this year. (Year-to-date we've only hit 90 on seven days...while the normal annual occurrence is 25 days!)



2:30pm Monday, August 25:
We've had a long stretch of below-average temperatures as conditions the past four weeks have been more like September than August. It's been 33 days since we last hit the 90-degree mark (91 on July 23). But folks wishing for a final glimpse of Summer-like conditions are in luck.

Looking ahead, I see two (brief) warm spells and a good chance for a near 90 day with each. First up, we have a three-day warm up which will lift high temps to near 90 degrees on Wednesday. A weak cold front will move through Wednesday night, thus lowering high temps to the low to mid 80s on Thursday and Friday.

Another pulse of ridging will build to the East coast over Labor Day weekend--good timing for anyone planning a final trip to the shore or swimming pool! Saturday and Sunday look like the warmest days with high temps likely rising into the upper 80s to near 90, before another front approaches late in the holiday weekend.

As for the chance of rain...the relatively dry pattern (as of late) looks to continue into early September. An isolated shower is possible Wednesday evening with the first weak front, but there's a better chance of showers here Sunday afternoon into Labor day. There is a bit of uncertainty in the late-weekend forecast (Sunday and Monday), so do check back here for an update on Wednesday or Thursday....and I'll nail it down for you. What about Cristobal? An offshore track seems to be a lock, so he's a miss for us (although coastal tides will be active into the weekend).


Noon Friday, August 22:

The past couple of days have been very average for August. "Average" has been a rare thing to come by this summer, but the past 48 hours has actually felt like the classic dogs days conditions!

Today, however, low-level flow off the Atlantic is beginning to advance westward across the region, and tonight and Saturday will be dominated by this easterly flow. The result will be cloudy, cooler conditions (highs in the 70s on Saturday) with spotty drizzle at times. Sunday will bring improving conditions with a partly sunny afternoon and highs near 80.

Next week continues to hold promise for a brief warm spell that *might* lifts temps to near 90 degrees on Wednesday or Thursday. A jet stream ridge will build from the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic on Monday - Wednesday, so high temps will ramp up a few degrees each day. Meanwhile, a tropical cyclone will likely be named in the western Atlantic. There's tremendous uncertainty on both strength and track, but the most likely outcome is a storm that will recurve somewhere off the East coast but west of Bermuda. Stay tuned....


Issued: 8-28-14 (Horst)