2:30pm Monday, August 25:
We've had a long stretch of below-average temperatures as conditions
the past four weeks have been more like September than August. It's
been 33 days since we last hit the 90-degree mark (91 on July 23). But
folks wishing for a final glimpse of Summer-like conditions are in luck.
Looking ahead, I see two (brief) warm spells and a good chance for
a near 90 day with each. First up, we have a three-day warm up which
will lift high temps to near 90 degrees on Wednesday. A weak cold
front will move through Wednesday night, thus lowering high temps to
the low to mid 80s on Thursday and Friday.
Another pulse of ridging will build to the East coast over Labor
Day weekend--good timing for anyone planning a final trip to the shore
or swimming pool! Saturday and Sunday look like the warmest days with
high temps likely rising into the upper 80s to near 90, before another
front approaches late in the holiday weekend.
As for the chance of rain...the relatively dry pattern (as of late)
looks to continue into early September. An isolated shower is possible
Wednesday evening with the first weak front, but there's a better
chance of showers here Sunday afternoon into Labor day. There is a bit
of uncertainty in the late-weekend forecast (Sunday and Monday), so do
check back here for an update on Wednesday or Thursday....and I'll
nail it down for you. What about Cristobal? An offshore track seems to
be a lock, so he's a miss for us (although coastal tides will be
active into the weekend).
Noon Friday, August 22:
The past couple of days have been very average for August.
"Average" has been a rare thing to come by this summer, but the past
48 hours has actually felt like the classic dogs days conditions!
Today, however, low-level flow off the Atlantic is beginning to
advance westward across the region, and tonight and Saturday will be
dominated by this easterly flow. The result will be cloudy, cooler
conditions (highs in the 70s on Saturday) with spotty drizzle at
times. Sunday will bring improving conditions with a partly sunny
afternoon and highs near 80.
Next week continues to hold promise for a brief warm spell that
*might* lifts temps to near 90 degrees on Wednesday or Thursday. A jet
stream ridge will build from the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic on Monday
- Wednesday, so high temps will ramp up a few degrees each day.
Meanwhile, a tropical cyclone will likely be named in the western
Atlantic. There's tremendous uncertainty on both strength and track,
but the most likely outcome is a storm that will recurve somewhere off
the East coast but west of Bermuda. Stay tuned....
11:00am Tuesday, August 19:
Yes, it's been an incredibly comfortable August. Through August
18th, the aggregate temperature anomaly is an impressive 4
degrees below normal...which is on track for a Top 5 coolest August.
Of course, we still have 13 days to go, and as the saying goes "past
performance does not guarantee future results". So while I do not see
any scorching conditions in the coming days, I do think a trend toward
more seasonable conditions is likely into the final week of August. If
so, the month may conclude 2 to 3 degrees below normal, which would
drop the rank to somewhere between the 10th to 20th coolest August
(out of 100 years) on record...which would still be rather impressive,
especially considering that this would make SIX the number of month's
this year with below average temps!
Short term, we have a front just to our south and it will lift
slowly northward Wednesday into Thursday as another upper-level trough
crosses over the region. This will bring an increase of clouds
Wednesday and a moderate chance of showers Wednesday afternoon into
Thursday. Friday may begin cloudy, but I anticipate improving
conditions as a light north breeze develops.
The weekend forecast is tricky as chilly high pressure builds
across New England, while seasonably warm and humid conditions build
across the Midwest and OH Valley. My sense is that the high pressure
should bring us a comfortable Saturday with partly sunny skies,
although clouds may be increasing. A warm front moving into western PA
Sunday into Monday will bring a shower/t-storms threat that might
arrive here late in the weekend. 90-degree warmth will develop in some
places west of the Appalachians into next week, however, with a
blocking trough off the New England coast I wouldn't bet on that hot
air making it into eastern PA.